Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Temperatures are warm and loose wet avalanches are possible as the sun heats slopes midday. Retreat to shady aspects when you notice wet snow beginning to roll downslope.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Saturday is forecasted to be warmer than previous days this week, so expect the range of wet loose avalanches to slightly increase. Avalanches may shift a little further into areas of what were cold and dry before. South facing snow that has transitioned to spring conditions will hopefully freeze overnight. When the snow gets slushy and you begin sinking in more than a few inches, or punching through what was once a supportable crust, retreat to colder snow. Wet loose avalanches may occur naturally in slushy spring snow, or in dampened, previously dry snow. You could also trigger them on steep slopes when they get wet. As cloud cover and wind increases there is a possibility that avalanche activity may decrease. 

    Recent small, natural wet Loose avalanches and rollerballs

Avalanche Discussion

Several days of warming are culminating Saturday when freezing levels are forecasted to reach 7500ft. Much of the snow on the southern half of the compass has transitioned to spring conditions on the surface. Mid to upper elevation north slopes continue to hold onto winter, with light dry powder. Check out my observation HERE  from Mt. Pilchuck on Friday, where I found both spring turns and light dry snow. You may find the odd wind slab in steep, isolated pockets on northerly slopes at upper elevations. Expect to find them in gullies, around features and beneath rock bands. Cornices are getting very large, and with the warm day they may peel off. Avoid slopes beneath corniced ridgelines, where one might trigger a large avalanche. A small storm is forecasted late Sunday which might change the groundhog day conditions as of late.

Deep persistent slab avalanches are dormant and unlikely, but you can still find the weak structure . The Mid-January PWL is about 10ft below the snow surface and gaining strength. The last deep slab avalanches in this zone likely occurred around February 25 with suspected avalanches in adjacent zones as recently as March 1-3. Major warming events later in spring and summer could reawaken this dormant beast. Keep in mind the consequences of these massive avalanches, which would most likely occur right now if a large cornice broke, landing on a broad steep upper elevation slope beneath.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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