Vancouver Island Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2020 1:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

No new avalanches have been observed or reported.

Summary

Past Weather

Over the past forecast period the region has seen mostly unsettled weather conditions. Overall a mixed weather bag with intermittent flurries, light to moderate south west wind and periods of sun. Freezing levels did however reach the 1500 meter level.

Weather Forecast

A series of pacific storm fronts will pass over the island over this coming forecast period. The initial front is cold and winds will gust t possibly strong as the front arrives and departs, the preceding fronts will not be as robust. Expecting light to moderate snow flurries with daytime freezing levels to reach 1000 meters at the highest. Inland areas should remain much cooler with freezing levels around the 600 meter mark. Friday 5 to 10 cm snow , Winds Moderate from the South West , Freezing levels 1000 meters.Saturday 5 to 10 cm snow, Winds Moderate from the South West, Freezing levels 1000 meters.Sunday 5 to 10 cm of snow , Winds Moderate from the South West then switching to Moderate North East, Freezing levels 900 meters.

Terrain Advice

Careful and cautious route finding when entering into or over convex rolls or steep features.Adjustments to route planning and finding that avoids wind-loaded and steep terrain if snowfall amounts exceed 20 cm.Avoid traveling both above and below cornice features.

Snowpack Summary

Daytime warming with freezing levels up-to 1500 meters and periods of sun has effected the surface snow with steep solar aspects seeing the development of a sun crust, Exposed ridge tops are scoured down to the Jan 31 melt freeze crust. Non solar protected areas still have preserved snow and dry snow. The Jan 31 melt freeze crust can be found down as deep as 30 cm and is bonding moderately well. The mid and lower snow-pack is well settled and dense with a few interfaces that are not concerning and but are still detectable.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Variable surfaces conditions from wind loaded to wind pressed and on solar aspects a breakable sun crust.
  • Upper: A supportive and reactive melt freeze crust down from 15 to 30 cm.
  • Mid: A variety of old crusts can be found.
  • Lower: Well settled and dense.

Confidence

High - Good data, both telemetry and field. Forecast models are in agreement.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
New snowfall and wind will transport available snow to predominantly North aspects. **Location:** All aspects and in both the Alpine and the Treeline. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem is possible from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered expect these avalanches to be small, and on specific terrain features large, size 2.

Valid until: Feb 15th, 2020 1:00AM