Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 2nd, 2018 9:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

VIAC Jesse Percival, VIAC

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Vancouver Island.

Summary

Confidence

High - forecast models in agreement.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Identify safe routes when travelling either above of below cornices. Caution when entering areas with wind loaded snow. Observe temperatures and sky conditions as solar effect will have a rapid effect on destabilizing the upper snow pack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche reports in the last 72 hours

Snowpack Summary

A well established melt freeze crust dominates the upper snow pack and can be found on all aspects and at elevations up to 1700 meters. The March 22 melt freeze crust can be found down from 15 to 45 cm and is producing hard resistant planar results when tested. Mid and lower snow pack is well settled and dense.

Snowpack Details

Surface: A well established melt freeze crust on all aspects and at elevations up to 1700 meters. Upper: Down between 15 and 45 cms the March 22 melt freeze crust can be found. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Cool overnight temperatures followed by warm and sunny days with only trace amounts of snow fall have been the weather story as of late. Saturday evening alpine temperatures dropped to below minus 7 and Sunday temperatures remained cool with very little sun exposure and mostly overcast and broken sky conditions.

Weather Forecast

Initially a cool and mostly dry northwesterly flow will continue to bring cool conditions and light north west wind with very little precipitation. A strengthening south westerly flow approaches the island region late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing to the forecast area moderate south east wind and moderate to heavy snowfall and rising freezing levels and temperatures. Monday: 1 to 5 cm new snowfall. Temperatures - 7 overnight rising to 1 mid day, winds light to moderate north west. Freezing level 200 m rising to 800 m mid day. Tuesday: 5 to 10 cm new snowfall. Temperatures -3 overnight rising to near 2 by mid day, winds moderate south west. Freezing level 500 m rising to 900 m mid day. Wednesday: 25 to 40 cm new snowfall. temperatures -5 rising to 2 mid day, winds moderate south east . Freezing level 700 m rising to 1200 m mid day.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
New snow and wind will develop sensitive wind slabs that will be found in the alpine and at tree line on specific lee features such as ridge tops and on convex rolls. These avalanches will be sensitive to human triggering and if triggered will be large in size.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs
Down up to 45 cm this melt freeze crust was buried March 22. Found on primarily north aspects in both the alpine and tree line, these avalanches have been stubborn to triggering but if triggered will produce large to very large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet
On Monday expect solar effect on south aspects at all elevations to unconsolidated upper snow pack producing small loose wet avalanches that will effect travelers exposed to terrain traps such as cliffs . These avalanches will form quickly when the sun comes out and will be touchy to human traffic. If triggered these hazardous avalanches may gain mass producing avalanches large in size and will be able to bury injure or kill and mountain traveler.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 4th, 2018 9:00AM

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