Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2018 11:05AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Dan Goodwin, VIAC

Vancouver Island.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - No alpine observations.

Travel/Terrain Advice

Avoid wind loaded features and solar aspects in the afternoon. Take note of condition changes through elevation bands. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences near terrain traps.

Past Weather

20 - 60 cm of new snow with higher totals on the west coast followed by a clearing western flow.

Avalanche Summary

No natural avalanches were observed. Ski cutting produced several small wind slabs on SW-SE terrain at all elevations on Saturday with crowns of 20 -40 cm deep sliding on the December inversion crust.

Snowpack Description

Surface - Recent low density storm snow up to 60 cm on a variety of old surfaces. This snow has shown signs of moderate bonding to previous layers. Upper - Cold, dry unconsolidated snow is present on all aspects above 800 m. There is a density change within this snow that has exhibited some weak bonding properties just above the December crust. Mid - Well settled. Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast

Warm and low winds Mon - 0-3 mm. Winds light and variable. Freezing levels of 500-2300 m Tue - 0-3 mm. Winds light 5-20 km/h from the southeast. Freezing levels of 1350-2600 m Wed - 0-3 mm. Winds southeast 12-18 km/h. Freezing levels of 1300-2500 m

Problems

Wind Slabs

ecent moderate winds from the NW have created areas of wind slab at all elevations on SW-SE aspects. Natural avalanches are unlikely but these slabs may possibly be triggered by a human early in the week. In large alpine features these avalanches could be large (size 2).

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Rising freezing levels and temperatures may cause natural loose wet avalanches at all elevations on solar aspects especially in steep terrain with shallow snow and exposed rocks and trees. These avalanches are likely to be small.