Vancouver Island Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 2nd, 2021 2:00AM

Thu Apr 1st Current Conditions
Alpine Low Treeline Low Below Treeline Low
Fri Apr 2nd 2 Day Outlook
Alpine Moderate Treeline Moderate Below Treeline Low
Sat Apr 3rd 3 Day Outlook
Alpine Moderate Treeline Low Below Treeline Low

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices, Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

During a flight check of the island alpine southern zone a widespread natural loose wet cycle in the Alpine and tree line on steep solar features up to size 2.5 was observed. Loose and wet snow in steep terrain was observed gaining mass in gulley features and running to mid and lower paths.

Summary

Past Weather

A series of cool nights and warm and sunny days with no precipitation.

Weather Forecast

A south west flow will deliver this forecast period overcast sky and periods of flurries for most days, Forecast models indicate that increased precipitation amounts are likely in the northern half of the forecast area.Friday: Trace amounts of snow. Winds Light to Moderate from the Southwest, Freezing levels 200 meters rising to 800 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -6Saturday: 5 to 15 cm of snow, Winds Moderate to Strong from the South West , Freezing level 700 meters rising to 1000 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -4Sunday: Trace amounts of snow. Winds Moderate to Strong from the North West, Freezing levels 400 to 1000 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -4

Terrain Advice

Caution when transitioning into areas that are being loaded with new snow and wind.Avoid travelling both above and below cornices.As you descend in elevation , the loose wet avalanche problem is likely to present.

Snowpack Summary

Past warm and sunny conditions followed with periods of overnight cooling have continued to slowly settle and strengthen the entire snowpack. All snow surfaces including north aspects became moist, with solar aspects becoming unconsolidated down 10-15cm. A cooling trend is expected to refreeze the upper snowpack and proved a new surface for incoming precipitation to slide on.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Moist, expected to refreeze into a meltfreeze crust
  • Upper: Well settled with a number of unreactive laminated crusts
  • Mid: Well settled and dense.
  • Lower: Well settled and dense.

Confidence

Moderate - Excellent field observations of past warming cycle and good agreement between forecasts weather models for this area.

Problems

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
Cornices are widespread and large. Previous warming and cooling may have added some temporary strength, This problem will persist through the remainder of the season and can be both a trigger for slopes below as well are large enough to create an avalanche hazard alone. Location: Predominantly north aspects at ridge top in the Alpine and Tree line. Possibility: Triggering of this avalanche problem is unlikely to possible from light loads such as skiers/snowmobilers. Natural avalanches are unlikely to possible. Size: If triggered expect these avalanches to be large size 2, on isolated terrain features very large, size 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
Precipitation and above zero temps below 800 meters are possible during this forecast period. Loose wet is likely to continue to persist at the lower elevations. **Location:** Below 800 meters on all aspects. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem is possible from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered expect these avalanches to be small size 1, and on isolated terrain features they may be able to gain mass and could be large, up to size 2 .

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
This new avalanche problem is likely to form during periods of snow fall and moderate to strong south west winds. **Location:** North East thru to North West aspects and found in both the Alpine and Tree line. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem is unlikely to possible from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are very unlikely. **Size:** If triggered expect these avalanches to be large size 2.

Valid until: Apr 3rd, 2021 2:00AM

Forecast Trend

The latest forecast danger ratings, broken down to elevation. See how an elevation is trending.