Vancouver Island Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 19th, 2021 2:00AM

Sun Apr 18th Current Conditions
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Moderate
Mon Apr 19th 2 Day Outlook
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Moderate
Tue Apr 20th 3 Day Outlook
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Moderate

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

No new avalanches observed or reported at this time.

Summary

Past Weather

Consistent air temperatures reaching the double digit mark on the island's mountain ranges and a consistent Freezing level near 3,000 Meters of elevation. Clear skies and light winds have contributed to a great deal of reduction in snow volume across Vancouver Island.

Weather Forecast

Slightly cooler air temperature trend over the next several days (hovering near 2,200M for the next several days. Looking ahead to next weekend, we could see a further reduced Freezing Level and possible precipitation in the form of snow and rain at mid-mountain. Monday: No new precipitation, Winds light from the East (possible moderate Easterly gusts in afternoon, Freezing level steady around 2,200 meters Temps at 1500 meters up to +6 degrees.Tuesday: No new precipitation, Winds light from the North (gusting to Moderate from North in afternoon), Freezing level steady at 2,200 meters. Temps at 1500 meters up to + 6 degrees.Wednesday: No new precipitation, Winds light from the North (gusting to Strong North winds in afternoon at the North end of forecast region) , Freezing level steady at 2300 meters. Temps at 1500 meters +7 degrees.

Terrain Advice

Please respect the current closures at Mount Washington, no access is permitted at anytime on the ski areas slopes or terrain.During periods of intense warming and sunshine, avoid solar facing terrain.Avoid travelling both above and below cornices.Early starts may help to ensure you can accomplish your trip objective prior to arrival of day time high’s when the snowpack will become increasingly more unstable.Major concern remains with the fact that no below freezing temperatures are taking place on Vancouver Island’s mountain ranges overnight. Expect continued destabilization within the layers that exist within the upper snowpack.Possibility of isothermal snow may make for extremely challenging and dangerous travel as snow may readily collapse under an individual’s weight.

Snowpack Summary

Double digit air temperatures, coupled with strong sun and limited winds are reducing the overall mountain snowpack volume on Vancouver Island. The weather pattern will see some cooling however air temperatures will continue to melt snow (most notably on solar facing terrain.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Melting snow surface and isothermal snow at Below Treeline elevation band
  • Upper: Wet and dense/moisture laden snowpack. Possibly destabilized layers as a result of melt water percolating and exacerbating interface instabilities
  • Mid: Wet and dense/moisture laden snowpack. Possibly destabilized layers as a result of melt water percolating and exacerbating interface instabilities
  • Lower: Well settled and dense.

Confidence

Moderate - No below freezing air temps in sight for next several days. Solar Aspects remain main concern with day time heating. Avalanche danger ratings reflect the highest danger level expected over the course of the day.

Problems

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
Expect Cornices to remain highly unstable and although it is possible many weak cornices have already collapsed this past week, remain vigilant of your position on the mountain and avoid travelling above and below this avalanche problem. Location: Predominantly north aspects at ridge top in the Alpine and Tree line. Possibility: Triggering of this avalanche problem is likely from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are possible. Size: If triggered expect these avalanches to be large size 2, on isolated terrain features very large, size 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Likelihood

Expected Size

1 - 1
The loose wet avalanche problem will remain the main issue as overnight temperatures will remain above zero degrees up to mountain top, expect south facing terrain to become rapidly unconsolidated earlier in the day as temps rise and the sun begins to directly radiate onto solar surfaces. Location: South Aspects at all elevations Possibility: Triggering of this avalanche problem is likely from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are possible. Size: Expect widespread size 1 to 2 avalanches

Valid until: Apr 20th, 2021 2:00AM

Forecast Trend

The latest forecast danger ratings, broken down to elevation. See how an elevation is trending.