Northern New Mexico

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist today.  Triggering a small avalanche is unlikely but not impossible. Above treeline avoid slopes where you find stiff supportable slabs on top of weak faceted snow. The faceting process has left us with a cohesion-less snow pack near and below treeline. Look out for Dry Loose avalanches on slopes greater than 35 degrees.  Any ride right now would be small but could have serious consequences from a shallow snowpack and natural obstacles.  

If you're interested in getting caught up on the season so far before this next round of snow, check out the Conditions Blog.

The bottom line with our snowpack right now is that it's extremely weak, and that weakness hasn't seen much in the way of stress due to a prolonged period of high pressure. With a fairly significant winter storm forecast to impact our region Thursday through Saturday we anticipate the avalanche danger to increase quickly and significantly. We'll need to be patient as we allow this weakness to readjust to the new changes. 

Moderate East/ Northeast winds from Dec 2 - 5 have wreaked havoc above treeline.  Some slopes have been stripped and scoured back to a shallow snowpack or bare ground.  Other slopes have been drifted and loaded into pockets of hard slabs (mainly West and South aspects).  Breakable crusts to supportable hard slabs are the main surfaces at these elevations. These slabs are easy to identify with their smooth rounded appearance and not well connected across the slope.  These slabs will look the most enticing to ski or ride compared to the moonscape appearance that makes up most of our terrain above treeline right now.

A small natural avalanche from Dec 5 on a cross-loaded gully on a SE aspect is a reminder that these stubborn slabs have the potential to fail on weak faceted layers that lurk below. These slabs look smooth and will feel hollow and sound drummy. Obvious red flags such as collapses and shooting cracks are indications you've found a stiff slab with weak faceted snow beneath.  It'll be on the margins of these slabs that you'll be able to impact a weak layer.  Hard slabs tend to be unpredictable and can oftentimes break well above you.  Think about what the consequences are of releasing one of these small pockets before committing to a slope. Or better yet avoid them altogether.

The last week of high pressure has done a lot to change our snowpack.  An overall faceting process has kicked into full gear with big temperature swings from the warm sunny days and cold clear nights. Near and below treeline,  we have a relatively shallow snowpack (2-3 feet) that has become weak faceted snow throughout.  In terrain greater than 35 degrees, it's easy to get this cohesionless snow to start moving downhill where it easily entrains itself, sometimes to the ground.  These small faceted "sluffs" may be big enough to take you off your feet and move you places you don't want to go.