Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Drifting snow will create the main avalanche problem today across many aspects due to shifting winds and continuing snowfall.  Expect dangerous conditions at upper and middle elevations with soft, reactive wind slabs in steep, terrain and cross loaded gullies. Drifted snow may release naturally in the steepest terrain, and is likely to avalanche from a human trigger. You could trigger avalanches 2-3 feet thick today that will easily bury a person. Carefully evaluate the snowpack, and be conservative in your decision making today. The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Drifting snow has loaded and cross-loaded multiple aspects at major ravine elevations. These vary from firm, stubborn, older wind slabs to softer slabs that will likely be more sensitive to a human trigger. South wind today will use any available snow to build new slabs on north facing slopes early, while new snow this afternoon will load east and southeast facing slopes as wind shifts back around to the north west. With modest snow totals in recent days, new wind slabs may be closer to the smaller side than truly large, but they will be found on many aspects, and  likely reactive to a human trigger given the moderate wind speeds. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent cold temperatures and crusts have driven a faceting problem in areas of thinner snowpack. Natural avalanche activity has occurred on this layer at lower elevations outside our forecast area. Faceted snow has been observed more locally beneath the hard 157mph crust within our forecast area at 4200’. You can also find faceted snow around the Christmas rain crust though that layer is much more deeply buried at mid and upper elevations. This problem was identified at the ground at lower & mid elevations with a thinner snowpack. Snowfall or a skier/climber could overload these weak layers initiating an avalanche in the right conditions. Look and listen for collapsing and whumpfing.

    4857' NW aspect. Ben Allen of Acadia Mountain Guides finds weak faceting snow beneath the Christmas rain crust. Roughly 140cm of wind packed stronger snow cap the weak layer at this location.

Avalanche Discussion

A considerable avalanche rating, first and foremost describes dangerous avalanche conditions. This danger can come in many forms including large or very large avalanches in just a few areas, or smaller avalanches in many areas. Today’s forecast is describing the latter. Shifting winds and modest snow totals are creating wind slabs in many locations that will be reactive to a human trigger. It’s worth noting that smaller avalanches can still bury a person as well as a large avalanche. 

Thanks to everyone for the great observations. The recent reports of ground level faceting around the range have been very helpful. Please keep them coming. 

A complete incident analysis and report of the fatal avalanche accident that occured last Monday is in progress and will hopefully be completed very soon. Our goal is a comprehensive report of the incident and recovery effort which will be released on this website in the Incidents and Accidents section. We are grateful for the support of Ian’s family and friends as we work through the details of Ian’s trip that day along with the snow and weather factors that led to the avalanches that took his life and buried him. 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, February 11 @ 7PM - Patagonia Films Event - Solving for Z

In this film, IFMGA Mountain Guide Zahan Billimoria explores his relationship with risk and reward in the mountains where stunning cinematography and engaging storytelling make this film truly stand out.  This event is FREE and we are excited to host Zahan live at the end of the showing to answer some of your questions live! 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

Regions covered