Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche in areas of recently wind-drifted or pillowed snow. It'd be a stroke of bad luck but triggering an avalanche on weak layers buried 4-6 feet deep remains a possibility on very steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes at upper elevations. The avalanche danger is expected to rise tomorrow due to snowfall and wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Thursday, I found that the wind events over the past week had produced widespread wind-affected slopes in the Sawtooths. This was most common in upper elevation and alpine terrain, but some open mid-elevation slopes also took a beating. These wind slabs formed in common places such as on the downwind side of prominent terrain features like ridges, mid-slope gullies, and cliff bands, but were also visible on the aprons and open slopes of alpine cirques. 

    Keep your eyes peeled for these stiff or hard drifts, and pay attention to the feel of the snow beneath your skis or sled. You're most likely to find these wind slabs in very steep, alpine-type terrain where the consequences of triggering even a small slide would be very dangerous. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONTriggering a 4-6 foot thick persistent slab avalanche has become very unlikely. It would take a dose of very bad luck, but it may be possible to trigger one of these monsters in very steep (over 35 degrees), wind-swept, alpine terrain.  

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a week since the end of the last storm—in our southern mountains, it's been even longer. During this mid-winter dry spell, we've experienced the full gamut of weather: wind, cold temps, warm temps, sun, clouds, more wind—you name it. This has left us with a snow surface that's equally variable. In wind-sheltered terrain, you're likely to find that the snow surface has turned to "recycled powder", also known as near-surface facets. On sunny slopes, a crust exists that may have facets above and/or below it. On Wednesday, Ethan found an ugly and relatively widespread crust and facet combination at middle elevations in the Soldiers (video). Once you get into wind-exposed terrain, all bets are off and you're likely to find anything and everything—wind-hardened surfaces, stiff drifts, sun crusts, and near-surface facets. A good rule of thumb is this: the slopes where you've been finding the best riding conditions are usually the weakest snow surfaces.

While the storm arriving this afternoon is looking less impressive than it once was, we still stand to bury these surfaces throughout much of the forecast area. In our northern and western mountains, we may see enough snowfall—combined with wind—to create a slab atop these new weak layers. Tomorrow, our job will be to see how the old snow surface responds to the new load. As Scotty said on Wednesday, "Today's canvas is tomorrow's problem". But for the canvas to become a problem, we need a painter—snow and wind. Will this painter be a Michaelangelo or a rank amateur? We'll know more by tomorrow morning, but I say bring it on! 

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