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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2015–Feb 16th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Cornices have grown to a healthy size over the last two weeks. Solar radiation today will make them hazardous to parties underneath them.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge over the Interior will keep things dry and mostly clear other than valley some valley cloud over the region for the next few days. Diurnal temperature swings with lows around -10 and highs around -2 at 1800m with generally light winds are forecast. No significant precipitation is forecast until the end of next week.

Snowpack Summary

The moist upper snowpack that we had grown so used to has finally begun to freeze. Expect crusty surface conditions and moist snow beneath it to ~2000m and settling storm snow in the alpine. The Jan 30 crust layer is down ~1-1.25m which formed a crust to 2200m. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down ~1-1.5m. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche cycle yesterday morning from the previous nights rain had released several size 3 avalanches within the highway corridor and one size 3.5. Avalanche activity was extended yesterday afternoon when the sun came out releasing numerous loose avalanches to size 2.5 on sun effected slopes.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.