Our weak layers are at a dangerous depth. A deeper more cohesive slab means rider triggering will taper off but consequences will increase. These conditions are unlikely to change in the near future.
Weather Forecast
There's a break between storms until late this afternoon when a Pacific system arrives to the Interior. Light to moderate snowfall amounts are forecast into tonight with strong southwest winds. This system will pass by early Wednesday morning leaving us with a north westerly flow with lingering flurries and light snow until Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
100 to 140cm of recent storm snow, deeper amounts west side of the summit, is settling over the Feb 10 facet/surface hoar/crust interface which depends on aspect and elevation. 10cm below is the Jan 28 surface hoar layer. The Jan 22 surface hoar layer is evident 5cm deeper. Test results were easy to moderate and sudden planar on the Jan 28 layer.
Avalanche Summary
We had a natural avalanche cycle yesterday morning producing 5 size 3.0 slab avalanches east of the Rogers Pass summit and 1 size 3.5 to the west. Numerous size 2.0 to 2.5 avalanches were also observed within the highway corridor.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.