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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2016–Feb 17th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Check out our new blog post. There is some uncertainty when and if we will see the sun, and how much that will affect the recent storm snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overcast on Wednesday with flurries or light snow, moderate southerly winds, and freezing levels rising from valley bottoms overnight to about 1200 metres during the day. Overcast with light snow on Thursday combined with light wind and freezing levels rising from valley bottoms up to 1300 metres. On Friday, sunny periods with scattered or broken clouds, moderate southwest winds, and freezing levels rising up to 1500 metres.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday we had reports of a natural cornice fall size 2.5 and a storm slab size 2.5 both from northeast aspects in the alpine at about 2100 metres. I suspect that wind slabs continued to be touchy on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate southwest winds and 5-10 cm of new snow added to the wind slabs and settling storm snow from the past few days. About 40-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust. This crust exists in most places except for higher elevation shaded terrain. In many areas there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 180cm below the surface and has become less of a concern. Possible triggers for this deep and destructive layer include a large cornice fall or significant warming.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.