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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2019–Mar 22nd, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Loose wet avalanches remain reactive with the warm temperatures. Cornices are soft and weak. Avoid travel under, on or anywhere near cornices.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern begins to change Thursday with increased cloud cover and falling freezing levels overnight. FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain 5-15 mm up to 2400 m. Treeline temperatures near + 6 degrees. Ridgetop winds moderate with strong gusts from the South.SATURDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods. Freezing levels 1500 m and treeeline temperatures near +3. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels 1800 m and alpine temperatures near +5. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday. Natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1 were reported on Tuesday in the North Shore Mountains. Natural activity may start to taper off with cooler temperatures this weekend. Until then you can expect loose wet slides to continue.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable and the heat has likely eliminated any trace of cold snow except on high elevation north features. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt then freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations and signs of snowballing, surface sluffing and loose wet avalanches are current.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. This layer is most prominent in the North Shore Mountains on north aspects. With little overnight re-freeze the warm temperatures will penetrate deeper and continue to destabilize the snowpack and possibly initiating larger persistent slab avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity is expected to continue on all aspects and elevations except north facing, alpine slopes. Cornices are softening up and weak. You don't want to be under or near one of these looming monsters when they fail.
Avoid slopes if they have large cornices overhead.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Warm temperatures are penetrating deeper into the snowpack and a cohesive slab now sits above a weak layer. Its hard to say how long it will take for this warming to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers.
A smaller avalanche could trigger a deeper persistent weak layer initiating a large avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5