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Avalanche Forecast

May 3rd, 2023–May 4th, 2023
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

A weak snowpack and strong May sun are making for high avalanche hazard. Backcountry travel is not recommended.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A very active period of spring avalanche activity started Friday and has continued through Wednesday. Wet/loose natural and controlled avalanches have been widespread with numerous sz 3, and isolated sz 4's. Many slidepaths failed down to ground once the avalanches reached Treeline elevations and lower. The number of avalanches has started to taper off, but large destructive avalanches are still possible.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps have penetrated the snowpack creating an moist, isothermal snowpack treeline and below on all aspects and into the alpine on solar aspects. Buried crusts in the upper 50 cm are breaking down. Shallow snowpack features have loose, weak snow to ground.

20-40cm above the ground the Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas.

Weather Summary

As the high pressure weakens, freezing levels will start to drop and convective showers will develop, with rain/snow forecast for the weekend.

Tonight: Cloudy, Alpine Low 9°C, FZL 3500m, light ridgetop wind

Thurs: Mix of sun/cloud w. isolated showers, Alp High 15°C, FZL 3700m, light, gusting to mod E winds

Fri: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high 12°C, FZL 3500m, light, gusting to mod E winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

With intense solar heating and no overnight refreeze, the surface snow is moist and weak. Loose, wet avalanches are easily triggered in steep terrain and reliably gain enough mass to step down to the basal weakness at Treeline elevations and lower.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Several hot days with no overnight refreeze has warmed and destabilized the snowpack. This early season basal weakness has woken up below 2000m and is producing very destructive avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4