Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 6th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
kdevine,
Avalanche Canada
The stormy weather may be over, but the snowpack is complex. Resist the urge to venture into bigger terrain until the snowpack has had a chance to gain some strength. The best riding is likely to be found on low angle slopes in wind sheltered areas.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / light southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -7Â
THURSDAY - A mix of sun and cloud/ light south wind / alpine high temperature near -4Â
FRIDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light to moderate southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -2Â
SATURDAY - Mainly cloudy / light south wind / alpine high temperature near -7
Avalanche Summary
Storm slabs will likely be easiest to trigger in wind loaded areas, as well as in the trees where they may rest on a buried surface hoar layer.
Numerous natural, human, and explosives triggered avalanches size 1-3 were reported in the region on Tuesday. Of these, many were storm and wind slab avalanches, however, it is notable that some of the larger ones were reported to have run on the early December persistent weak layer. These ones occurred on northeast through south aspects in the alpine.
Numerous size 1-2 human and explosives triggered storm and wind slab avalanches were reported on Monday.Â
It is notable that there were several human triggered avalanches reported at lower elevations in the neighboring Glacier National Park region on Monday. These avalanches highlight the potential to trigger avalanches in the trees. Reports of these can be viewed here, here, and here.
On Sunday, numerous natural, human and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 3.5 were reported in the region. Check out this MIN report from Sunday of an avalanche below treeline on Begbie Shoulder near Revelstoke.
Snowpack Summary
The recent stormy weather has brought around 40-80 cm of new snow to the region with moderate to strong winds. Storm slabs are likely widespread. In many areas, the storm snow sits on a weak layer of surface hoar that was buried around Christmas. This layer continues to be of concern, mainly at treeline and below treeline.
Two persistent weak layers buried in early/mid-December are now down about 90-150 cm. The form and distribution of these layers are highly variable and may vary significantly from one valley to the next. The first layer has been primarily reported as small surface hoar. The next layer has been reported as a thin freezing rain crust, surface hoar, or thick rain crust depending on elevation and location. This layer also remains a concern.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent new snow with some moderate wind has created widespread storm slabs that are still likely to be triggered by humans in many areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Two persistent weak layers buried in early/mid-December are now down 90 to 150 cm. The form and distribution of these layers are highly variable and have may vary significantly from one valley to the next, and between elevation bands.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 7th, 2021 4:00PM
