Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
In the midst of an active weather pattern, snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday. If it snows a lot, expect reactive storm slabs, choose simple terrain and avoid overhead hazard. If it snows a little, expect reactive storm slabs, choose simple terrain and avoid overhead hazard
Confidence
Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
Disagreement between weather models leaves us with a high degree of uncertainty around the tracking of the low pressure system, how much precipitation it will bring and where the bulk of it will fall on Monday.
Sunday night: Snow, 10-15 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level 1200 m.
Monday: Snow, 10-40 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature -1, freezing level 1100 m.
Tuesday: Snow, 10-20 cm, strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature -3, freezing level 1000 m.
Wednesday: Very heavy snow/rain, strong to extreme southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0, freezing level 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Saturday, as professionals limited their travel and visibility was poor. Numerous avalanches have been reported through this lengthy stormy period including natural (size 1) and explosive triggered (size 2) in the North Shore mountains on Thursday and Friday.
Snowpack Summary
30-50 mm of precipitation is forecast to fall Sunday night and over the day Monday. Recent storm totals at upper elevations are upwards of 200 cm. Recent snow sits on a crust in many areas, and may also sit on surface hoar in some places. At lower elevations, the snowpack will be rain-soaked.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.
Watch North Shore Rescue's snowpack conditions update from Friday here.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow and wind will likely create widespread and reactive storm slabs at upper elevations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Rain on snow at lower elevations may create conditions for wet loose avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2