Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2018–Jan 16th, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=30469&oPark=100205Avalanche activity will increase throughout the day as the warm alpine temperatures and sun begin to affect the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Valley cloud

will linger all day, once above it you will be treated to sunny skies and warm temps as there is a temperature inversion, alpine high of +3 and 20 km/hr south east winds at ridge top. Alpine temps remained near or above zero over night. Snow forecasted for Tuesday evening (6mm) and more Wednesday night into Thursday (22mm)

Snowpack Summary

70cm of storm snow has settled into a slab over several weak layers, Jan 4th and Dec 15 surface hoar layers which are down ~60cm and ~90cm respectively. The snow load has made these layers reactive with sudden planar results showing high propagation potential, especially on steep solar aspects where the snow has been heated by the sun.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred yesterday afternoon with numerous sz 2.0 - 2.5 avalanches and several sz 3.0 - 3.5 avalanche from steep, solar facing terrain. The cycle occurred midday when solar radiation was at its highest.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

A temperature inversion kept alpine temperatures near or above zero degrees over night, the snowpack will weaken quickly with the suns effect. A natural avalanche cycle was observed yesterday afternoon from steep, rocky terrain on solar aspects.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Pay attention to sluffing off cliffs and steep solar terrain, signs of a warming snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 4th and Dec 15 surface hoar layers are widespread around tree line and below, buried ~60cm and ~90cm respectively. The forecasted warm temps will further slab up the upper snow pack and avalanche activity is expected throughout the day.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4