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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2015–Jan 7th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Tricky conditions are expected for Wednesday with a new storm slab sitting on a potentially touchy weak layer. Don't let the warm air and sunny conditions make you over confident.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure should keep the south coast dry for the next three days. Wednesday should be mostly sunny with light alpine winds and freezing levels around 3000m. A temperature inversion is expected and the warmest air (+5 deg C) is expected to sit around 2000m. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday with freezing levels around 3000m, a mix of sun and cloud, and light winds. On Friday, mostly cloudy conditions are expected with freezing levels beginning to fall progressively. The next weak storm system is currently forecast to arrive Friday night and it looks like freezing levels will be back down below 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported but this probably speaks to a lack of observers during the storm.  Natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the Sea-to-Sky region on Tuesday. Skier triggered slabs remain the main concern for Wednesday with the storm slab possibly sitting on a touchy weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

At the end of the storm, freezing levels rose and rain fell on the new storm snow. The storm slab sits on a previously variable snow surface that included wind affected surfaces (crust, hard and soft slabs), a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered shady terrain. The bond between the storm slab and the layer below is currently unknown but is expected to remain reactive on Wednesday. Cornices are expected to be weak with the current warming.  In the middle and lower snowpack we might find the mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layers. These are now buried 1m or more. The surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the crust/facet layer is expected to be more widespread but also more variable. Prior to the storm, reports suggested that the layer could be between 0 and 120cm deep depending on exposure to wind. The new storm load means these deep layers may be more reactive than prior to the storm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Warm temps and rain have caused the recent storm snow to settle into a cohesive slab. This slab may overlie a touchy weak layer. Give the new snow a chance to stabilize before pushing into avalanche terrain. Moist or wet storm slabs are possible.
Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

The moist or wet snow surface may produce wet sluffing on steep terrain features. Use extra caution on or below sunny slopes. A wet sluff has the potential to trigger a larger slab avalanche.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers down around 1m remain a concern. A smaller avalanche may step down to one of these layers or a heavy trigger like a cornice fall may be able to trigger one of these layers.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6