Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 20th, 2012 10:21AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

The Coquihalla and Allison Pass areas received locally heavy snow and may have a greater storm slab problem than other areas.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Convective snow showers. Moderate south-westerly winds, decreasing through the day. Freezing level around 700m.Thursday: Light snow. Light, south-easterly winds. Freezing level around 500m. Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Freezing level remaining near 500m.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations were reported on Monday. On Sunday, a size 3 loose avalanche failed naturally with solar warming on a south-east aspect in the Coquihalla area. A size 3 slab also failed on a north aspect, 1.5m deep and 100m wide. A few isolated avalanches were observed on Saturday in steep, rocky terrain. On Thursday, a natural loose moist avalanche cycle was observed in the Coquihalla region between 1400-1700m, with avalanches of size 2-3.5. A few slabs also released, with crowns of 50-60 cm. Explosives testing in the Duffey Lake area produced slab avalanches up to size 2.5 and skiers triggered very touchy storm slabs to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Snow and wind created fresh wind slabs and storm slabs on Tuesday. Snow which fell last week is slowly settling, but variable storm snow weaknesses and buried crusts mean a deep storm slab release is still possible. Large cornices threaten slopes below. Crusts down around 60cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and Coquihalla areas. These exhibit moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests.Deeper persistent weak layers are variable in distribution across the region. A crust/surface hoar/facet layer buried in early February, now down about 1.5m, is still is a key concern. It is especially prevalent on south-facing slopes above treeline, and all slopes below treeline. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Variable new and old storm slabs will be easiest to trigger on steep or convex terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 6

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Wind slabs are lurking behind ridges and terrain breaks. They may be hidden by new snow, making them hard to spot. Large cornices also threaten slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 6

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs
Persistent weaknesses, buried in February, still have the potential to create very large, destructive avalanches if triggered. Possible triggering mechanisms include a person/sled on a thin snowpack spot, cornice fall, or step-down avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 8

Valid until: Mar 21st, 2012 9:00AM