Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

SUNDAY: partly cloudy with flurries starting in the afternoon, up to 5cm expected overnight, moderate southwesterly winds, freezing level of 1200m. MONDAY: lingering flurries with sunny breaks, moderate northeast winds, freezing level of 1000m. TUESDAY: mainly sunny, light variable winds, freezing level of 800m.

Isolated artificially and naturally triggered storm slab, wind slab and cornice avalanches continue to be reported.  Storm slab avalanches are expected to be remain reactive to human-triggering with ongoing wind, especially if the sun pokes out.  Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

40-80cm of settling storm snow overlies a thick melt-freeze crust which extends into the alpine. The snow is reported to be bonding well to the crust and recent avalanches have been failing within the recent storm snow, not on the crust interface. At treeline and below, other crusts may exist in the upper snowpack due to the recently fluctuating freezing levels. Freezing levels on Wednesday climbed to around 2000m and have to fallen to around 1400m. As the freezing level continues to drop, a crust is expected to form at lower elevations. Ongoing southeast through southwest winds have been loading leeward features in the alpine and large cornice development has been reported over the last few days. The weak surface hoar layer from early January can be found down over a meter.  Although triggering this layer has become unlikely it is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests,