Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Nov 29th, 2012 9:38AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeSummary
Confidence
Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period
Weather Forecast
A deep low pressure system off the Gulf of Alaska will continue to bring moist, warm and an active weather pattern over the next few days. Weaker impulses embedded in the flow will bring moderate amounts of precipitation over the mountains. Timing of these pulses are tricky to predict. Friday: FLVL’s 1400 m, snow amounts 10-20 cm, ridgetop winds SE 40- gusting 60 km/hr, alpine temps -3.0.Saturday: FLVL’s 1200m, snow amounts up to 15 cm, ridgetop winds SE 40-50 km/hr, alpine temps -4.0. Sunday: FLVL’s 1000-1200 m, snow amounts 5-8 cm, ridgetop winds S 10 km/hr, alpine temps -4.0.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations have been reported. Natural avalanche activity will likely pick up again with forecast wind and snow.
Snowpack Summary
The region will continue to see pulses of moderate snow accumulations, and strong ridgetop winds. Storm slabs and new wind slabs will load a variety of weak surfaces. These surfaces consist of large surface hoar, a thin sun crust, surface facets, moist snow, or preserved storm snow depending on elevation, sun and wind exposure, slope angle, time of day, and aspect. The new snow may have a poor bond to these underlying weaknesses. Snowpack tests continue to show sudden collapse (or "drops") results on the early November facet/crust deep persistent weakness, but because this weakness is so close to the ground in most areas, associated avalanche activity will likely be limited to slopes with smooth ground cover (e.g. scree slopes, rock slabs, summer firn, glaciers, etc.).
Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow will build storm slabs on all aspects, overlying a variety of weak surfaces. Storm slabs and new wind slabs will be touchy, and natural avalanche activity is likely.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Slopes with smooth ground cover and reloaded bed surfaces. Prone to remote triggering and step down avalanches. Typical trigger points include thin rocky areas. May be difficult to trigger, but often very large with serious consequences.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Nov 30th, 2012 2:00PM