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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2019–Jan 12th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: North Columbia.

The intensity of the warming this weekend is uncertain. This uncertainty is best handled with cautious route selection.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, temperature inversion from 1700 m to 2500 m with 0C in the alpine. SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Temperature inversion from 1600 m to 2800 m with +2C in the alpine.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Temperature inversion from 1700 m to 2700 m with +2C in the alpine. MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Temperature inversion from 1700 m to 2500 m with up to +4C in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several size 1-2.5 natural and human triggered avalanches were observed in steep slopes at treeline and in the alpine on all aspects. With the expected warming on the weekend there is a possibility of triggering deeper layers in the snowpack, see the MIN post here as an example.

Snowpack Summary

Warm upper-level air temperatures may be impacting the snow surface. You may find dry snow, moist snow, or possibly a frozen melt-freeze crust, depending on how warm the air temperatures are. The warm air may produce touchy storm slabs at all elevations. At the highest of elevations, wind slabs may still linger in lee and cross-loaded terrain features.The middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally well-settled and strong. However, there still remain a few deeper weaknesses in the snowpack around treeline and alpine elevations. Professionals are still tracking a layer around 150 to 200 cm deep, composed of sugary faceted grains, feathery surface hoar, and a sun crust. The base of the snowpack may also still be composed of weak faceted grains. The likelihood of triggering these layers may increase with the warm air incoming this weekend. These layers would most likely be triggered by humans in areas where the snowpack is shallow.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The warm air temperatures may produce touchy storm slabs at all elevations. At higher elevations, wind slabs may still linger in lee and cross-loaded terrain features.
Look for signs of instability such as whumpfs, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.Cornices may be touchy; stay well-back on ridges and avoid traveling beneath them.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

There have been a few recent avalanches on deeper layers in the snowpack. The likelihood of triggering a deeper layer will increase with the expected warm weather over the weekend.
Warm weather will increase the chance of triggering a deeper layer.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5