Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

The next Pacific frontal system will reach the coast tomorrow. The front will affect most of the Interior through the forecast period. Wednesday will see light convective flurries, moderate ridgetop winds from the SW and freezing levels near 1600 m. For Thursday, precipitation amounts expected are 4-10 mm. Ridgetop winds will be strong from the SW and freezing levels rising to 2300 m. Warm air will remain over the region on Friday with freezing levels rising to 2800 m. Skies will show a mix of sun and cloud and ridgetop winds will be moderate- strong from the SW.

On Monday, several natural avalanches up to size 2 on north and west aspects were reported. Explosive control showed avalanches up to size 2 mostly from northerly aspects above 2300 m. On Wednesday, wind slabs are expected to reactive to human-triggering. Where enough new snow exists, it may be possible to trigger storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5.

Recent snowfall amounts vary greatly across the region. The NW part of the region received up to 60 cm while the Dogtooth received around 30 cm and the far south received close to zero. At higher elevations, this dense storm snow sits over the mid-March interface which had included crusts, moist snow, wind affected surfaces, and/or old wind slabs. In exposed terrain, strong SW winds had redistributed new snow into wind slabs on leeward features. Snow surfaces are wet around 1800 m and moist to around 2200 m. The snow surface is expected to undergo melt-freeze cycles as freezing levels drop overnight. On average, 20-50 cm below the surface is the mid-February facet/crust interface. This interface has not been reactive in the Purcells but has been very reactive in the neighboring North Columbia region. Deeper persistent weak layers in the snowpack have been dormant for several weeks, however shallower snowpack areas may be suspect.