Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 23rd, 2022 2:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.
matt,
Avalanche Canada
If heading out for a Holiday ski, climb or snowshoe, please remember that our current snowpack is extremely delicate and in a transitional state. We are on the upper and of the Considerable rating, and may even touch on High if the weather doesn't exactly match the forecast. Have a Happy and safe Holiday!
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A sz2.5 natural avalanche was noted today on what we call "Little Tent Ridge". It began in the south path, just below the radio repeater and ended up in the approach gully for Tryste Lake. It appears as though it entrained the entire snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
Wind transport is the name of the game right now. We've already seen evidence of an almost immediate avalanche cycle as wind slabs build. Expect this slab development to continue as wind directions drift from SW to W in the hours/days to come. The critical piece to remember is how even a small slab will entrain the loose snow and quickly cause avalanches to run far and fast. We may not have a deep snowpack, but if it all becomes involved in an avalanche, it will still be a big one!
Weather Summary
Lets hope Santa and Rudolph don't get blown straight to Saskatchewan tonight! Strong and gusty alpine winds will be ongoing for the next couple of days. For the moment it appears the really strong winds will be well above peak height with treeline winds in the light to moderate range. We are also expecting 4-8 cm of snow tonight as the weather change sorts itself out. A daytime high of -8 is expected for Christmas Day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This layer should be monitored as elevation is gained. Despite being labelled as deep, it can be a ways off the ground. Entrainment is a major concern. These avalanches could run to valley bottom.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Increasing winds tonight/tomorrow will build these new slabs in lee areas in alpine and treeline. It will likely step down to the deeper weak base layers.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
As the winds swirl around alpine terrain expect gullies and faces to shed the loose snow. These may trigger slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 26th, 2022 4:00PM
