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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 7th, 2015–Dec 8th, 2015
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Northwest Inland.

The snow load on a layer of buried surface hoar may be reaching the threshold for surprisingly large avalanches, especially at tree-line.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A series of powerful storms are going to wallop the coast over the coming days bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds that should spill over into the inland regions.  Tuesday should see snowfall accumulations of between 5 and 15 cm.  With another 10cm expected by Friday.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest and freezing levels should stay below 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

It sounds like there were touchy conditions out there over the weekend.   Reports of some large skier triggered and skier controlled avalanches from tree-line suggest that the load on the recently buried surface hoar is reaching critical levels.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is falling on a variety of old surfaces including a crust at lower elevations and south facing slopes, or facets and surface hoar on cooler shaded features.  The distribution of surface hoar is definitely our biggest knowledge gap.  Bellow this we're still dealing with a thin early season snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A layer of surface hoar lies under the recent storm snow that could increase both it's likelihood of triggering and the size of any resulting avalanches.
Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel. Now is a good time to dig a pit or two!>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5