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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2014–Mar 17th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Snoqualmie Pass.

Watch for areas of newly forming wind slab on lee easterly aspects near and above treeline.  Watch for unstable storm slabs formed Sunday.  Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected so make careful snowpack evaluations and choose more conservation terrain.  

Detailed Forecast

A cool upper trough should pass the Cascades early Monday with cool but drying northwesterly flow expected through the day Monday.  A few light snow showers early Monday should give way to partly to mostly cloudy conditions with increasing and strong northwest winds lasting through the day.

This weather should allow for the older wet snow to form a more solid underlying crust which may act as a sliding surface.  The strong winds should transport recent snow, mainly above treeline but look for transported snow near tree line as well.  Winds should shift to more northwesterly Monday so watch for wind slab formation on east to south facing slopes.  

Storm slabs should begin to slowly stabilize Monday but should remain a concern and expect triggered slides to remain likely on steeper open terrain where cautious route-finding and conservative decision making will be essential.  

Snowpack Discussion

Recent Weather Summary

Following the active weather over the past month or so we are shifting snowpack concerns to more storm related instabilities and moving away from earlier deeper snowpack concerns, at least for the short term.

A stalled moist  frontal boundary has been draped over mainly the North WA Cascades since Saturday afternoon.  This caused very strong winds late Saturday with moderate to heavy precipitation and a snow line above 5500 feet causing rain and wet snow conditions late Saturday near and below treeline.  Temperatures cooled overnight and through early Sunday depositing about 1 foot of new snow at Mt Baker by Sunday morning with diminishing winds.  Additional snowfall accumulated through the day Sunday as cooling gradually lowered snow levels towards the central WA Cascades and Cascade passes by late afternoon.   

Given the weather since Saturday, I expect to see new wind slab formed on lee terrain near and especially above treeline where most of the precipitation fell as snow during the very windy period. The bonds of new snow to a refreezing crust should be good given the slow cooling trend. 

Storm slabs should be found on all aspects and elevations, especially with daytime warming and continued snowfall Sunday afternoon.   

Recent avalanche observations

No avalanche activity was reported Saturday or Sunday, however most of the precipitation was just changing over from rain to snow at most sites from Stevens Pass southward.   Reports from Snoqualmie Pass early Sunday indicated that the firm crust from Saturday had softened considerably with the warming and light rain thus setting the stage for some good bonding with the new snow as cooling occurs. 

Earlier activity last week 

The ski patrol at Crystal Mountain on Sunday and Monday produced consistent large wet slab releases with large explosive charges releasing to deep layers from early this winter. These avalanches were generally on N to E slopes at about 6-7000 feet with crowns of 4 to 6 feet and up to 10 feet in spots with the High Campbell chair and some trees destroyed.  See photos at the Crystal Mt web site. They also reported similar natural releases were seen in the adjacent Mt Rainier National Park.

On Tuesday 11 March, NWAC observer Dallas Glass also found recent very large wet slab releases on Kendall Peak at Snoqualmie Pass. Several large to very large (very destructive) wet slab avalanches began at about the 5500 ft elevation on primarily W aspects on slopes of about 35-40 degrees and ran about 1000 feet. These slides likely released Sunday night or Monday when the area received over 3 inches of rain to elevations above 5500 feet. A video of the slide area and debris fields can be seen here  NWAC channel.  On Thursday, backcountry skier Andy Hill found wet slab debris from earlier in the week that stepped down to the firm January crust in Great Scott Bowl in the Alpental backcountry with an 8-10 ft crown.  Also, avalanche educator Gary Brill reported about a dozen large slab releases on N thru E aspects up to around 6000 ft following this storm cycle on a flight Wednesday along the west slopes.  

While it is unlikely these deep wet slab avalanches could be human triggered, it remains a possibility if initiated at a thin spot in the slab. WSDOT professionals and NWAC observers during the middle of the week reported moist snow and a lack of temperature gradient penetrating deep in the snowpack.  Wet slabs will remain a concern especially during times of rain or extended warm periods and are not necessarily tied to the period of heaviest rain or warmest temperatures. With more rain and mild temperatures forecast this weekend, wet slab avalanches will remain a concern near and west of the crest. Here is a link to more information about the wet slabs.

A natural wet loose cycle was reported near Stevens and Snoqualmie during the frontal passage and heavier precipitation Friday morning.  See NWAC observer Jeff Hambelton's video on new wind slab concerns in the Mt. Baker backcountry from Friday.  

  

Photos by Andy Hill 3-11-14, Alpental backcountry off a D3/R3 wet slab from early last week.  

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1