Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2015–Feb 17th, 2015

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Watch the effect of solar radiation today and manage your group accordingly. Plan to be off any big sunny slopes before the sun has a significant effect on them.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge maintaining clear and dry conditions over the southern interior . Winds are forecast to be light with freezing levels rising up to 1300m. This trend is likely to last until Wednesday

Snowpack Summary

5-15cm of light snow overtop the Feb 14 crust. Crust was observed to be 9cm thick in a profile above the Asulkan Hut at 2200m. The Jan 30 crust layer is down ~1-1.25m which formed a crust to 2200m. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down ~1-1.5m. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity yesterday. From rain event 3 days ago, numerous natural avalanches with large propagation and depth. In the Asulkan Valley, size 3.0 from Mt Pollux running on the Nov 9 crust, size 3.0 in the bowl between the Rampart and Mt Afton running to the valley, suspect Jan 30 or 15 layers. A size 2.0 natural icefall below Mt Leda.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Large cornices throughout the Park will be taking in a good dose of solar radiation today for the first time. Manage your groups exposure to this overhead hazard even on shaded slopes as the cornices above are still in the sun.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Solar radiation will be a factor today and for the next few days on sun effected. Watch for loose avalanches off of cliffs and moist snow as indicators of snow instabilities.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

We have persistent weak layers down between ~1 to 1.5m. A large load such as a cornice failure will be needed to trigger these layers. Alternatively humans may be able to trigger them from shallow areas.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 4