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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 13th, 2012–Dec 14th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Rogers Pass is still providing good skiing conditions.  Just watch out for those pockets of slab which could pop out unexpectedly, and be careful of early season hazards like stumps and rocks.  If traveling on glaciers, be aware of thin snow bridges.

Weather Forecast

Very little snowfall is in the forecast for the next couple of days.  Mild temperatures, light winds and some convective activity can be expected today, and dryer conditions for Friday.  More precipitation is expected (up to 12 mm) on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has developed into a wind slab in the alpine, and rests on a well settled mid-pack.  The Nov. 28 and Nov. 16 crust-surface hoar layers, and the Nov. 6 crust can all be found in profiles, but are not very reactive in tests.  There is substantial variation in snow depth depending on elevation and aspect.

Avalanche Summary

Very little avalanche activity has been observed in the past few days.  Avalanches which have been observed are mostly from steep alpine start zones affected by wind.  Wind affected and cross loaded features, and thin areas are most likely to produce human triggered avalanches.  Some loose snow sluffing has also been observed in steep terrain.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Near ridge line, pockets of wind slab persist, and may be triggered by riders. Cross loaded features and gullies should also be treated with caution.
Be careful with wind loaded pocketsAvoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

With an additional 10-15cm of very light snow, sluffing is possible where the wind has had no effect. Caution skiing in steep terrain and over terrain traps where sluffs will gain mass into avalanches.
Avoid travelling under cliffs that are exposed to sluffing from above.Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Nov 6 crust complex has yet to wake up. While the likelihood of triggering is low, it will produce large avalanches. As the load on this layer increases, it may become reactive. Smaller avalanches may step down to this deeper layer.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.The snowpack on glaciers is shallow, and the use of a rope is recommended.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4