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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 10th, 2016–Mar 11th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The persistent slab on solar aspects woke up this morning. A natural avalanche cycle was observed on popular runs, like Avalanche Crest and NRC Gully.

Weather Forecast

A cold front will pass through the area today, bringing another 10-15cm of snow along with gusting moderate to strong SW winds. Freezing levels may rise to 1600m. Tonight, unsettled conditions continue, with gusting SW winds, 5cm of snow, and dropping freezing levels. Friday will be mainly cloudy with flurries.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs on S through W aspects are touchy, as they overlie surface hoar sitting on a thick sun crust, the Feb 27 layer. Snowpack test results yesterday at Lookout Col showed these slabs were ripe to trigger and propagate on a SW aspect, while a pit on the NE aspect had stubborn results.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is currently underway, with numerous sz 2-3's from W-SW aspects on Avalanche Crest and NRC Gully. A large sz 3.5 from a SW aspect on Mt Smart was observed yesterday, propagating several hundred metres wide and scrubbing down to vegetation. Also, a cornice failure in Cheops North yesterday, with debris in the valley.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Feb 27th interface is now down 60cm & is producing sudden planar results on a crust on S though W aspects. Test results on NE aspects showed stubborn results. Wind-loading and solar input will increase it's sensitivity.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Wind Slabs

Previous southerly winds created windslab on lee slopes and cross-loaded features. While these slabs are gaining strength they still remain a concern for human triggering.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

The additional storm snow, accompanied by SW winds and mild temp's, has allowed cornices to grow and become fragile. Limit your exposure to these overhanging beasts along the ridge crests.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4