Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 14th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Lynnea Baker,

Waterton Lakes.

Tuesdays wet flurries will bring all forms of precipitation. Be prepared for snow or freezing rain depending on elevation.

As forecasting period progresses natural activity of storm slabs will taper but they will remain possible to human triggering.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Wet flurries, 5-10 cm. Mod gusting to strong SW winds. FL 1600m

Tue: Cloudy with wet flurries, 15 cm. Mod gusting extreme strong SW winds. Alpine high -1. FL 1800m.

Wed: Cloudy with sunny periods. Light gusting strong SW winds. Alpine high -3. FL 1500m.

Thur: Cloudy with sunny periods. Light gusting strong SW winds. Alpine high 0. FL 1600m.

Snowpack Summary

Below 1600m surface snow is moist down 50 cm. In alpine and treeline extreme SW winds and warm temps have pressed surface snow and continue to build new windslabs. This overlies old windslabs and the March 3 rain crust. Feb 15 crust down 60-100 cm exists up to 2000m. Lower snowpack is well settled 1F to P. HS 250-300 cm near the continental divide.

Avalanche Summary

Few natural wind slabs to size 2.5 were observed on SW-SE facing slopes through the weekend. As always keep those Mountain Information Network observations coming.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Up to 20 cm precip and strong SW winds are forecast by Tuesday evening. This will create wind effected fresh storm slabs that could step down to deeper layers.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from wind.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Freezing levels are is forecasted to rise to 1800m Tuesday. Precip will fall as rain or snow depending on elevation. Steep terrain below treeline will see wet loose activity. Watch for signs of pin wheeling.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.
Daytime warming will weaken surface layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 17th, 2022 4:00PM