Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Isolated pockets of wind slabs are expected to be still reactive to human-triggering in exposed high elevation terrain, especially in eastern parts of the region which received more recent storm snow.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
A major weather pattern change takes place beginning this weekend. As the ridge of high pressure breaks down, this opens the door to a cascade of incoming Pacific weather systems.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods, no precipitation, 15-30 km/h southerly wind, treeline low temperature -3 C, freezing level at 1200 m.
SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness with light snow beginning in the late afternoon, 1-2 cm, 30-50 km/h southerly wind, treeline high temperature +2 C, freezing level at 1400 m.
SUNDAY: Snow, heavy at times, 60-80 cm, 50-70 km/h southerly wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level at 1200 m.
MONDAY: Snow and rain mixed, heavy at times, 75-95 cm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +4, freezing level at 1700 m.
Avalanche Summary
Several small loose dry natural avalanches have been observed in steep chutes on Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
Recent strong northerly winds have redistributed available snow into isolated wind slabs and scoured down to the crust in exposed terrain.
The mid-February crust is down around 25-50 cm and exists on all aspects and elevations. Observations are suggesting that it is bonding well to the recent snow.
The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 80 cm and seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recently formed wind slabs are expected to be still reactive to human-triggering.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2