Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

A series of frontal systems coming in off the coast will bring light precipitation throughout the week.

Wednesday Overnight: Mainly cloudy, light snowfall, up to 5 cm of accumulation. Freezing level dropping to 900 m. Moderate to strong southwest winds. 

Thursday: Cloudy with snowfall, 5-10 cm of accumulation. Freezing level rising to 1500 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. 

Friday: Partially cloudy, light flurries. Freezing level rising to 1500 m in the afternoon. Light to moderate southwesterly winds.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy, light flurries. Freezing level around 1000 m. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. 

In the neighbouring Cariboos, an operator south of McBride reported a large skier-triggered avalanche that occurred on a north-facing aspect at treeline. This slab failed on a buried layer of surface hoar and propagated widely. 

Explosive control on Tuesday in the Pine Pass area produced several large storm slab avalanches.

Last weekend, numerous natural and sledder-triggered avalanches were reported in the Pine Pass and Renshaw area, all failing on surface hoar. The most reactivity has occurred on wind-loaded, northeast aspects. Most notably, a size 2.5 sledder-triggered avalanche occurred near Bijoux Falls. The full report can be seen here.

Another 5-15 cm of new snow will add to 40-70 cm of recent settling storm snow. In the alpine and treeline, southwest winds have redistributed the new snow into wind slabs in lee areas. Below treeline, moist snow or a melt-freeze crust can be expected from rain and warm temperatures.

This new snow is sitting on various surfaces, including hard wind-affected snow, sun crusts on southerly slopes, and most notably large surface hoar on shady or sheltered slopes. This layer of surface hoar is expected to remain problematic in the coming days, with the most reactivity observed in the Pine Pass and Renshaw area.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong in most areas, with multiple crusts throughout. No recent persistent slab avalanches have been reported on these layers.

• Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.
• Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.