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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2021–Dec 15th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Cool temps will slowly soften surface slabs.

Be wary of areas where the snow feels dense or stiffer. These slabs may be sitting upon a smooth, hard crust, waiting for a human trigger.

Weather Forecast

A mixed bag over the next few days, with scattered flurries and moments of sunshine.

Tonight: Cloudy, Trace amounts of snow, Alp temp -13*C, light SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, Trace snow, Alp high -12*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 4cm, Alp high -12*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

15cm of fluff Monday night has covered the weekend's fresh slabs, created by extreme S'ly winds Saturday. These slabs were prevalent in exposed, Alpine and Tree-line features, further downslope than normal. The Dec 1 crust is ~15cm thick at 1900m, buried by ~1m and found up to 2300m. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well bonded and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Natural and human triggered avalanche activity has decreased since the weekend.

Reports of denser surface snow below tree-line is indicative of settlement, which can produce a cohesive slab that fails as one unit. Given the Dec 1 crust is most prevalent below tree-line, this hard surface could be the perfect sliding layer for the slab to move on.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

35cm of new snow over the weekend was redistributed by extreme winds (up to 140km/h at Mac West Shoulder wx station Sat!). These extreme wind events may create slabs where you would not normally expect them. 15cm of new snow has hidden these slabs.

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

There is 50-90cm on the Dec 1st crust (a very hard, smooth layer for slabs to slide on), which has been skier-triggered in thinner snowpack areas. It is mainly an issue at tree-line, but also extends into the lower alpine up to 2300m.

  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3