Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Chris Gooliaff,

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Storm slabs on surface hoar turned things "electric" Monday afternoon, especially below treeline. Be wary of steep, gladed lines that did not avalanche during the storm.

Tuesday's sun may naturally trigger S'ly-facing slopes...heads up!

Summary

Weather Forecast

A brief ridge will build over the Interior, bringing sunshine, colder temps, and light mtn-top winds.

Tonight: Clearing with flurries, trace ppt, Alp low -11*C, light/gusting strong SW winds

Tues: Sunny periods, Alp high -10*C, light winds

Wed: Cloud with sun/flurries, Alp high -8*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Snow, 20cm, Alp high -5*C, mod/strong SW winds

Snowpack Summary

25-40cm of new snow, coupled with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds, has built storm slabs. The Jan11 surface hoar layer, down 40-60cm, has been extremely touchy with this new load, with numerous natural avalanches starting on this layer. The Dec 1 crust is buried up to 2m deep with weak, faceted snow above and below it.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle involving low elevation (below treeline) storm slabs occurred around noon Monday, with several sz 3's coming close or hitting the highway. Suspect Jan 11 surface hoar layer was sliding layer.

Treeline and above is currently in a natural cycle, with numerous sz 2.5-3's failing on all aspects in the highway corridor.

Confidence

Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

25-40cm of snow with warm temps and strong, gusty winds have built a storm slab. A natural cycle at all elevations started around noon Monday, with some bigger results (sz 3) from below treeline start zones failing on the Jan 11 surface hoar layer.

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs on exposed lee slopes and open areas at all elevations.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

The New Year Facets may wake-up if a large storm slab avalanche is triggered onto it. Minimize your exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

  • Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 18th, 2022 4:00PM