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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2015–Jan 31st, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Nasty ski conditions out there right now. Skiing is very difficult with breakable crust and/or boiler plate windslabs. Cooler temps will continue to lock the snowpack in place.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A cloudy day for tomorrow. There is a chance we'll get a few cm's of snow, but not enough to have a significant effect on ski quality or avalanche conditions. The temperatures will fall slightly at all elevations. The 2500m high will be -5. Winds will be light from the NW.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches

Snowpack Summary

Forecasters went to the Commonwealth Loop today and battled the poor snow for the whole trip. Below treeline the heat has left a widespread temperature crust. For the most part this is breakable and does not carry a skier well. The crust was found as high as 2200m. It is likely higher, but the 2200m mark is where the boiler plate windslabs started. The entire alpine is covered with very dense windslabs and sastrugi. Treeline/alpine terrain has widespread, potentially triggerable windslabs. The Dec 13 crust was found to be 15-25cm's down with  a reasonable bond.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Alpine windslabs are welded in place at the moment. Treeline slabs are more patchy and vary in density. Shallow areas that have been recently stripped are more concerning from a triggering point of view.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The crust was found down 25cm's today. Facets above and below the crust indicate the potential for triggering. Tests had mixed results. Look at steep convex areas carefully.
Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depth>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is lurking at the bottom of the snowpack. A big trigger(cornice), or a shallow weak spot is needed to get it going.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5