Avalanche Forecast

Hurricane Ridge experienced another beautiful day on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. A skiff of new snow fell Tuesday night. Moderate winds may have redistributed settled old snow on polar aspects, forming the potential for isolated very shallow wind slabs. The last significant snowfall was a week ago on 3/5 when 7" of snow fell, with 2" of additional snowfall on 3/7.

We expect another cool, mostly sunny day for the Hurricane Ridge area on Thursday.

Most wind slabs should be very shallow, confined to polar aspects, and only consequential in very steep/extreme terrain or above terrain traps such as cliffs, rocks, or gullies. Exercise normal precautions and avoid lingering under large cornices, which can fail unexpectedly and represent a large ballistic object.

Surface travel conditions may be challenging, particularly during the morning hours before slopes soften. On W-S-E aspects, extensive periods of sunshine likely created stout melt-freeze crusts. As you transition onto northerly aspects, you might find breakable crusts.

We'll be tracking snow surface conditions ahead of the next storm, which should increase the avalanche danger Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Schedule

For the 2019-20 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice.  If you are out in the Olympics, share your backcountry observations.

March 5, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

Ridgetop wind transport near Washington Pass. 3/4/20 Photo: Josh Hirshberg

 

The beginning of March brought the first spring-like weather to the region. The days are getting longer and the sun (when it shines) has a noticeable effect on the snow. Alternating sun breaks and snowstorms is the theme of the week and the avalanche danger fluctuated just as fast as the weather. The southern zones and the east slopes have seen periods of light snowfall and significant sunshine while the northern zones and west slopes have had significant snowfall and occasional sun breaks. Above freezing temperatures were common at lower elevations throughout the region. 

Last week in review:  Temperatures were above freezing at most trailhead locations and concerns about the previous week’s buried surface hoar and weak layers were fading. Saturday temperatures plummeted as strong winds and new snow built wind slabs in most areas and drove the avalanche danger to considerable in almost every zone. Sunday’s calm weather and clearing in most areas helped stabilize wind slabs, but our attention turned to the strength of the sun and daytime warming. Lingering wind slabs and loose wet avalanches were forecast in every zone. For the remainder of the week, the avalanche problems in every zone were confined to the recent snow and each brief storm cycle had us thinking about wind slabs at upper elevations and loose wet avalanches from daytime warming and sunshine.

Spring isn’t actually here -- another round of cold temps and snow showers are on the way this weekend, but this past week’s oscillating weather is a good reminder to begin to shift our mindset. The sun is gaining strength, the days are getting longer, and we begin daylight savings this week. Even a brief period of sunshine can dramatically alter fresh, new snow. Check the mountain weather and avalanche forecasts for the most up to date info, enjoy the backcountry and let us know what you see out there!

--Peter Moore

Wet loose avalanche debris near Snow Lake. 3/5/20 Photo: Dallas Glass

Fresh cornice development from strong winds in the Stevens Pass backcountry. 3/4/20 Photo: Tom Whipple