Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2026–Jan 17th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia, Esplanade, North Selkirk, Dogtooth, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk.

Warm temperatures and sun are forecast for the alpine on Saturday 😎

Avoid slopes with cornices overhead, and limit exposure to slopes that become moist or wet.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

During the warm, wet weather in the first half of the week, large avalanches were reported up to size 3, including a few cornice falls that triggered persistent slabs on slopes below.

Since Wednesday, there have been a few wind slabs, mostly size 1, triggered by humans and cornices on SW-SE aspects in the high alpine.

Snowpack Summary

A widespread melt-freeze crust extends up to 2200 m in the north of the region and 2500 m in the south. In the high alpine, dry snow is wind affected. Sun and warm temperatures on Saturday are likely to moisten dry snow and soften crusts, especially on steep south-facing slopes. Large, overhanging cornices linger.

A surface hoar layer from in early January is buried around 1 m deep. In some areas, this layer continues to give results in snowpack tests. The mid-December crust is now buried around 1.5 m deep, and is present up to 2300 m. Triggering these layers is considered possible with large loads, like a cornice failure or in thin snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Clear skies. 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Saturday
Sunny. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Above freezing layer 2200 to 3200 m.

Sunday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Monday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Wind slabs are isolated, but may remain reactive.
Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.