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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2024–Mar 18th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Continue to choose mellow terrain, and avoid being under steep, sunny slopes.

Triggering large avalanches is still likely until a strong surface crust forms.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 continued, with some loose wet avalanches even being reported on north aspects.

On Friday, several natural persistent slab avalanches were observed, primarily on solar aspects, up to size 2.5.

As temperatures start to drop, we expect natural avalanche activity to be less common, but human triggered avalanches will still be likely until a hard surface crust starts to form.

Snowpack Summary

Moist or wet snow surfaces extend into the alpine on all aspects. The exception may be high, shaded, north-facing terrain.

Expect any dry snow that remains on the surface or underneath a melted surface to be generally wind-affected or compacted.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 110 cm deep. This crust has a layer of facets above it in many areas.

The eastern portion of this region has a much shallower, highly variable and wind-affected snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Clear. Moderate to strong west wind. Treeline low around -1 °C. Freezing level dropping to between 750 and 1750 m.

Monday

Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 1 °C. Freezing level between 1500 and 2000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level dropping to 1200 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. Light snow expected. 2-5 cm. As much as 10 in Kakwa. Moderate to strong northeast wind. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom. Treeline low around -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.