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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2023–Dec 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Raise your guard if you reach high enough elevations that surface crust is very thin or completely absent. Recent snow accumulations that escaped rainfall may still react to a human trigger.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported recently.

Some degree of avalanche cycle likely occurred as heavy snowfall shifted to rain on Sunday, although surface roughness likely greatly limited avalanche distribution, size, and destructive potential.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filiing out a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

In most areas of the Island, a thin new surface crust now tops 10-20 cm of storm snow from the weekend.

This snow sits on a combination of 1-3 cm crust and rimed surface hoar that constituted the pre-storm surface. Observations in the Mt Washington area on Sunday showed minimal bonding of the new snow to this layer.

Although the snow below this crust (and likely the snow above, as well) was previously moist from rain, it is for the most part dry and not particularly dense or consolidated.

In general the snowpack is still quite shallow with many early season hazards. Only specific terrain features with smooth ground cover and gullies are above threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Clear with cloud below 2000 m. Southeast alpine wind 5-10 km/h. Freezing level rising to 2500 m.

Tuesday

High cloud increasing with embedded cloud below 2000 m. South alpine wind 30-70 km/h, increasing. Treeline temperature around 3°C with freezing level to 2700 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with flurries bringing 10-20 cm of new snow, rain below about 1000 m. South alpine wind 25 to 40 km/h, easing. Treeline temperature around 0°C with freezing level of 1300 m, falling over the day.

Thursday

Clearing with cloud remaining below 1500 m. South alpine wind 10-15 km/h. Treeline temperature +1 with freezing level to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche danger is often elevated in alpine gullies where snow has accumulated.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.
  • Travelling on skis is hazardous due to a very shallow mountain snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.