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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2023–Jan 3rd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay, Little Yoho, Banff, East Side 93N, Kootenay, Lake Louise, LLSA, Sunshine, West Side 93N, Field.

The current conditions are complex and require a big-picture strategy of avoiding terrain features with wide margins. Trying to outsmart the snow by going a few meters left or right is not the right approach at this time. Step back and ask yourself if you should even be there in the first place. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in most avalanche starting zones.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has dropped off but human-triggered avalanches remain likely. This is a small persistent slab that was triggered near Bow Summit recently. Ski areas are both reporting results from all uncontrolled terrain. A skier-triggered avalanche in the Emerald Lake slide path occurred Saturday on the basal facets resulting in life-threatening injuries.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of soft surface snow in many areas gives good ski quality providing there is a base underneath. The upper part of the snowpack is now a settled slab and the lower part is active two persistent weak layers with snowpack tests showing sudden failures. All slopes steep enough to slide should be considered suspect right now.

Weather Summary

A ridge of high pressure persists over the region for the next few days providing mostly sunny weather and seasonal temperatures. For Tuesday expect clear skies, temperature from -5 to -12 and light winds from the southwest. The long-range forecast looks pretty dry for the next 10 days.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.