Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A frontal system is expected to arrive Thursday night bringing moderate to locally heavy amounts of precipitation, strong southwest winds at higher elevations and freezing levels to about 1600m. Light flurries should persist through Friday, but will give way to a ridge that will bring clear skies to the region over the weekend. Freezing levels on Saturday are expected to be at around 2000m, climbing up to about 2800m on Sunday.
Avalanche Summary
Over the past few days, loose snow avalanches to size 2 were reported from the region. Expect windslab activity at higher elevations and continued wet snow instabilities lower down with weather forecast for Thursday night.
Snowpack Summary
Since last week, light to locally moderate amounts of new snow have formed soft slabs that overlie a crust or wet grains at treeline and above while rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the isothermal snowpack at lower elevations. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm. The likelihood of avalanches failing on this layer has been very low due to cooler temperatures, however it may wake up with warming and the consequence continues to be very large destructive avalanches. Cornices in the region are very large and have may become weak with spring temperatures.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.