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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, West Island.

Take note of upper snowpack conditions as you move through terrain. Travel with caution where there is a surface crust or heavy, grabby snow. Where the surface is wet, avoid steep slopes if snow pinwheels or snowballs down the slope, or looks and feels like a slurpee.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday, numerous, small, skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain around treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Most rideable terrain was soaked by rain during the recent storm. Watch for a new crust to form on the surface between 1700 and 1000 m as the temperature slowly drops the next few days. Where dry snow remains, at very high elevations, there may be deep, reactive windslabs leftover from the strong to extreme south winds during the storm. In transitional elevations between dry and wet/freezing snow, moderate southeast winds Sunday morning may have formed thin, reactive windslabs over the new crust.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Snow/rain line around 1000 m. Moderate southeast wind trending to light by the morning.

Monday

Cloudy. Possible trace of snow. Up to 5cm around Mt. Washington, 5mm of rain on the western slopes of the island. Light southwest wind, increasing to moderate through the day. Snow/rain line around 1000 m.

Tuesday

Possible clear periods overnight. Mostly cloudy through the day. 3 cm of snow expected. Moderate rain in the southwest of the region. Light south alpine winds becoming strong through the day. Freezing around 900m.

Wednesday

Cloudy morning, possible sunny afternoon. 0-10 cm of snow expected overnight, heavy rain in the southwest of the region. Strong south alpine winds becoming moderate northwest through the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.