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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2022–Dec 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

There is a real potential for triggering larger-than-expected avalanches as slabs are sitting on a widespread weak layer.

Adopt a conservative approach by sticking to low-angle terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human-triggered storm slabs were observed Wednesday throughout the region. Few natural avalanches ran almost to the valley bottom.

Several natural and very large human-triggered persistent slabs (size 2 to 3) failed on a widespread weak layer underneath the storm snow. Some of them stepped down to deeper buried weak layers and even down to the ground. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

Although natural avalanche occurrences seem to be tapering off, the next round of precipitation may increase the likelihood of triggering. Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Between 30 and 60 cm of dense storm snow is now sitting on previous surfaces, varying from sugary faceted grains, cold unconsolidated snow or a small surface hoar. At higher elevations, new snow has been redistributed on northerly aspects and fresh slabs may not bond well to older surfaces. At lower elevations, a significant rain crust can be found.

In the upper snowpack, up to three weak layers created earlier in December can be found. Some of these may not exist in all areas of our region. The November weak layer, which will continue to be a concern even after this past storm, can be found anywhere between 75 and 125 cm down. The bottom of the snowpack is generally weak and faceted.

Weather Summary

A weak frontal system will push over the interior Thursday. Reinforcements will arrive later Friday as a stronger coastal system will spread moderate snowfalls into the region. Greater amounts are expected in the western sections. Quieter conditions are forecasted for the weekend.

Thursday night

Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries up to 2 cm, southwesterly ridge winds up to 30-40 km/h, treeline temperatures -6 °C. Freezing level around 500 m.

Friday

Snow, generally 5-10 cm except 10-15 cm over the Monashees, southwesterly ridge winds up to 45 km/h, treeline temperatures -5 °C. Freezing level around 500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy, light snowfalls up to 5 cm except 5-10 cm over the Monashees, southerly ridge winds up to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -5 °C. Freezing level around 500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy, lingering flurries, northwesterly ridge winds up to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -5 °C. Freezing level around 500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.