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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 30th, 2022–Jan 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

This is a tough year for our snowpack. It's important to remember that good terrain choice is critical to a successful day. Low angle and small terrain is your best defense against a very weak, and avalanche prone snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches, but terrain observations were few.

Snowpack Summary

This a hard snowpack description to write. Every now and then its hard to convey the seriousness of a snowpack in a short written description. We are essentially sitting in a house of cards known as the Nov 25 depth hoar layer. In a nutshell, the lower third of our snowpack is the worst we've seen in a very long time. It is a 30-40cm thick layer of rotten sugar snow. It's bad, and its everywhere. The upper 2/3 of the snow pack is slightly denser snow made up of several layers. Within this denser snow we have another persistent layer we know locally as the Dec 17th surface hoar. While not as bad as the Nov 25, this layer is also reacting in tests as its only down 20-30cm. We have noted a fair bit of regional variability in the depths of these layers layers, be sure to dig and locate them in your terrain of choice.

Weather Summary

It's going to snow somewhere tomorrow, but it won't be here. We don't seem to have any significant snow on the way for some time. But on the upside, we are looking at very pleasant temperatures of -8 to -6, light south westerly winds and mostly cloudy skies for tomorrow.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.