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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2023–Jan 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions persist with the ongoing heavy snowfall, rain, and wind.

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, explosives control produced several size 1 storm slab avalanches.

On Tuesday, a large storm slab avalanche was triggered by a skier on Metal Dome on an open east-facing slope at treeline. Another skier-accidental avalanche was reported to have failed within the storm snow near Oboe on a northwest slope.

Please continue to post your observations and photos to the Mountain Information Network. It helps strengthen our data gathering.

Snowpack Summary

By Friday morning, +30 cm of new snow and strong southerly winds are building reactive storm slabs in lees. New snow overlies previous wind-affected surfaces in alpine and open treeline terrain. At lower elevations, the snowpack is saturated.

A thick widespread crust formed in late December is down 60 to 90 cm. In the alpine, it is thin and breakable. Professionals are concerned that small avalanches may run down to this crust and create larger-than-expected avalanches.

Near the base of the snowpack, a weak facet/crust layer from mid-November can be found and remains a concern for triggering with large loads or on thin spots. In general, the snowpack is weak, faceted, and shallow.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Stormy, 30-50 mm of precipitation expected. Extreme southerly ridge winds gusting 80-100 km/h. A high of +1C at treeline. Freezing levels rise to 2000 m.

Friday

Stormy, 20-30 mm of precipitation. Extreme southerly ridge winds gusting 80-100 km/h. A high of +2C at treeline. Freezing levels hover around 1800-2000 m.

By evening the storm subsides easing winds and precip.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, 5 mm. Moderate southwesterly winds gusting 30-50 km/h. A high of -1C at treeline. freezing levels drop to 1500 m.

Sunday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light variable winds gusting 20 km/h. A high of -2C at treeline. Freezing levels continue dropping to 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.