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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Storm slabs are expected to continue to be reactive with ongoing flurries and strong to extreme southwest winds. Look for low-angle slopes in wind sheltered terrain for the best, and safest riding conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine low temperature near -8 

THURSDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 60-80 km/h gusting to 100 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1000 m

FRIDAY - Snow, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 50-70 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m

SATURDAY - Flurries, 10-15 cm / south wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 800 m

Avalanche Summary

With continued snow and moderate southwest wind, avalanches will likely remain easy to trigger on Thursday, especially in wind loaded areas.

There was a natural avalanche cycle reported on Tuesday, as well as numerous explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 and a few human triggered size 1 avalanches.

On Monday, there were reports of widespread natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 3. The largest avalanches were reported in the north of the region where there has been more recent snow. The avalanches being reported closer to Terrace were generally in the size 1-2 range.

There were a few natural and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches size 1-2.5 reported in the region on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm in the forecast for Thursday will bring recent storm snow totals to between 50-80 cm.

In the Shames area, a weak layer of surface hoar has been reported in sheltered areas down around 100-160 cm. 

A bit further north in the Nass/Sterling/Beaupre areas, there is potentially still concern about an older weak layer overlying a crust that is now roughly 160-180 cm deep. 

In the far north of the region, there is concern about weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.