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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 25th, 2023–Feb 26th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast, North Shore, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot, Tetrahedron.

Take a big step back from avalanche terrain. Saturday night's storm will bring 30-50 cm of new snow that is expected to bond poorly to the underlying surface. Touchy storm slab or dry loose avalanches will be widespread.

Don't let good visibility and the desire to ride deep powder lure you into consequential terrain. Choose sheltered, low-angled or heavily forested slopes with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Earlier in the week, northerly outflow winds created small (size 1) but reactive wind slabs at ridge crests.

Looking forward to Sunday, an abnormally cold and dry storm will deposit 30-50 cm overnight on Saturday and create dangerous avalanche conditions. This new snow is expected to bond poorly to the weak underlying surface. Reactive storm slab and dry loose avalanches may be widespread. Riders are advised to take a cautious approach and stick to lower angle and low-consequence terrain free of overhead hazards. Avoid avalanche terrain if you see signs of instability like cracking, whumpfing, hollow drum-like sounds, or recent avalanche activity.

Check out Friday's North Shore Snowpack Update for a picture of the unusual snowpack setup leading into Sunday's storm.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday night's storm will accumulate 30-50 cm of new snow down to valley bottom. This new snow is expected to bond poorly to the underlying surface formed by recent wind and cold temperatures. This surface consists of weak faceted snow, old hard wind slabs and a breakable crust between 1100 and 1600 m.

The mid and lower snowpack is well-settled, strong, and consolidated.

Snowpack depths are reaching 250 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Heavy snowfall, 30-40 cm of new snow accumulation expected by the morning. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -6 °C. Ridge wind southeast 20-50 km/h. Freezing level 200 meters.

Sunday

Snowfall tapering in the morning, an additional 5-15 cm of accumulation is expected. A mix of sun and cloud throughout the day. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind west 20 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Freezing level 300 meters.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with flurries, 5-10 cm of new snow accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Light ridge wind from the southeast. Freezing level 900 meters.

Tuesday

Cloudy with sunny periods and flurries, up to 5 cm accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -4 °C. Ridge wind northwest 10-30 km/h. Freezing level 600 meters.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.