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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2020–Jan 23rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

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Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to develop in locations receiving the greatest precipitation Thursday and during periods of heavy rainfall. Give any avalanche slope a wide berth, including where avalanches could run and stop.

Discussion

The West South zone will experience an array of conditions Thursday based on location and precipitation amounts. Areas like Paradise, Mt St Helens, and Mt Adams should see the highest rainfall and avalanche dangers. However, even in areas with less precipitation, this should be a very warm, wet, and windy day. Uncertainty exists around the details of this forecast, but we expect the rain on snow to develop very dangerous avalanche conditions in the West South zone during this time period. Areas where significant recent dry snow rests on the MLK crust, which subsequently receive rain, could experience the largest and easiest to trigger avalanches. This crust is the most prominent above about 5500' in the West South zone. 

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.