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RegisterJan 26th, 2020–Jan 27th, 2020
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Morning Update: Forecast danger increased to considerable near treeline and storm size problem increased to large size and extended into below treeline terrain due to higher than expected snowfall at slightly cooler temperatures Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Heavy snowfall has developed dangerous conditions, particularly near and above treeline. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees until the slab has time to settle. Near and below treeline under the new snow, running water continues to drive a lingering, but high consequence threat of glide avalanches and glide cracks.
Near treeline and below, the most dangerous conditions were likely due to an ongoing glide avalanche cycle on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Mt. Baker received heavy rain and snow in the last 12 hours, picking up 1.38” of snow water equivalent with snow levels generally hovering around 4000 ft, but with rain getting up to 4500 ft or so. The copious amounts of water running through the snowpack largely result from the 8” of water which hit the snowpack from Wednesday evening 01/22 through Friday evening 01/24. Most of that came as rain up to 6000 ft, creating 20” of snowpack settlement. On Friday through Sunday, Mt. Baker Pro Patrol observed saturation down several feet deep, with pillows collapsing and slabs up to 4 ft deep moving on smooth, steep rock faces, particularly where water drains under the snowpack. Lots of glide cracks were opening up at the ski area. The threat of glide avalanches, opening cracks, and collapsing pillows forced the ski area to close some steeper terrain on Saturday and Sunday.
On Sunday, limited visibility from the ski area afforded views of recent D2-2.5 debris from cornice fall or potentially glide avalanches. This debris is another indication that the snowpack needs to refreeze significantly before we’re done with these problems.
Snowpack settlement has dropped close to zero and below the variable amounts of fresh snow (up to 5” on Pan dome, with lesser amounts lower down), a slightly firmer bed surface lies above a fully saturated mid-pack that you can still sink your leg into.
Update: January 24th 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)
During the afternoon of January 23, 2020 one person was buried and killed by an avalanche that released from the roof of a home north of Blewett Pass near Highway 97. The elevation was approximately 1,700ft above sea level. She was found underneath 4 to 5ft of debris. She was discovered and excavated some time after the accident, where CPR was performed. Additional emergency response arrived within 15 minutes, but they were unable to revive her.
Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends of the victim.
January to Remember
A parade of storms since the New Year began brought relentless precipitation, and impressive snowpack growth throughout the region. Areas along the west slopes of the Cascades have rarely gone more than 24-48hrs without precipitation. In the past three weeks, the Volcanoes and Passes received 20-28in of water equivalent, translating into incredible snowfall totals - Mt. Baker Ski Area reported 240in of new snow since January 1. The majority of NWAC weather station sites are reporting snow depths well over 120% of normal for this time of year. Ongoing precipitation and fluctuating snow levels have maintained elevated avalanche danger throughout the month, with avalanche warnings issued for nearly all forecast zones on 4 separate days (January 6, 7, 12, 23).
Snow depth imagery for the Northwest Region on January 23, 2020. Many areas in the Cascades and Olympics show well over 100 inches of snow on the ground. Image courtesy of NOHRSC Regional Snow Analysis.
Location
January 1-23 Precipitation (Water Equivalent)
Hurricane Ridge
14.79”
Mt Baker Ski Area
28.65”
Harts Pass
11.2”
Stevens Pass
20.26”
Leavenworth
4.01”
Snoqualmie Pass
25.43”
Paradise, Mt Rainier
24.13”
Mt Hood Meadows
22.34”
Table 1: Precipitation totals for select weather stations January 1-23, 2020. Huge numbers at Baker, Rainier, Hood, and the Passes and there is still another week left this month.
MLK Weekend and a Pattern of Rain on Dry Snow
After a prolonged cold period with arctic air and lowland snow, MLK weekend brought unseasonably warm temperatures and a rapid thaw. High snow levels and rain caused wet avalanche activity throughout the region January 18-19. A few very large natural avalanches occurred at upper elevations where all precipitation fell as snow. A cooling trend followed, creating a pronounced crust that is now buried in almost all forecast zones. Cold, dry snow January 21-22 was followed by a rapid warm-up and the most significant rain on snow event yet, causing avalanche warnings on January 23 for 5 of our 10 forecast zones.
The crown of a very large avalanche around 10,000ft on the Newton Headwall of Mt Hood which likely occurred during the storm late last week. 01/19/20 Photo: Kevin Kayl
The buried MLK crust is widespread throughout the region and a prominent marker in the snowpack. Crystal Backcountry 01/20/20 Photo Jeremy Allyn
One More Week To Go
January isn’t over yet, and the long term forecast continues to show an active and wet weather pattern for the Northwest. The low-snow, drought-like conditions of the early season seem like a distant memory at this point. We’ve certainly made up for lost time in 2020, and this already impressive month looks to end with a bang.