Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday will mirror Wednesday: another cold & dry day with a H of -16 & a L of -29 at 1500m under clear skies.Things change Friday as low pressure once again becomes part of the picture. The current wx calls for 5 - 10 cm on Friday under SW flow. Another 10 cm is forecast for Saturday too.Things quiet down during the day Sunday before ramping back up Sunday evening as another system makes landfall bringing 5 -10 cm Sunday night & 5 - 10 cm Monday morning.
Avalanche Summary
No significant avalanche activity has been reported from the region recently.
Snowpack Summary
The weekend storm delivered 20 - 40 cm of snow to the region which fell on the January 13th facet/surface hoar layer. The snowpack has settled now and been affected by wind in some locations which has led to a wind slab problem. The wind slab is quite variable in the region. Some areas report widespread wind effect while others have seen nary a breath of wind. Where the wind has blown, there is likely to be a slab avalanche problem that is capable of producing avalanches to size 2.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.